In the process of working on some branch deposit data, I thought it might be interesting to look at the largest US banks’ branch network and how their branches are distributed according to the rate of growth of COVID-19 cases.
The analysis below shows the percentage of branches in counties which are seeing accelerating rates of COVID-19. The acceleration is calculated from the 3 day change from June 10 to June 7th compared to the 3 day change of June 9 to June 6th. The analysis also shows the branch deposit dollars in those accelerating counties.
A few caveats on the data: only full service branches were included in the analysis; the branch deposit and location data is the latest SOD data provided from the FDIC reflecting deposits as of June 2019. The June 2020 data will likely not be available until Q4 of 2020; branches that do not have valid counties or calculated COVID-19 rates were excluded.; COVID-19 data provided by the NY Times.
The table shows that certain banks are more at-risk based upon their served geographies and how COVID-19 is trending. While outside the scope of this simple analysis, it would be interesting to explore impacts on customer retention and service in highly impacted areas with closed or reduced full service branches. With no access to the local brick and mortar branch, would customers have a higher propensity to switch to a competitor because of a superior online product/service?