To summarize, our survey indicates that, compared to before the pandemic, the share of working days spent at home by full-time workers will triple after the pandemic. Our results also say that this shift will happen across major industry sectors. These changes in the location of work are also likely to exert powerful effects on the future of cities and the demand for high-rise office space (more on that next month).
A preview of the fiscal impacts on states from COVID19 using sales tax receipts as one metric is shown below. As NYS distributes sales tax revenues as payments to counties, the fiscal impacts will be felt downstream to local municipalities as shortfalls hit local budgets.
We will be working to compile comparable metrics on other states.
We’re working on approaches to model economic impacts on small businesses — the business itself, their local market and their supply chains.
In the process, we’re exploring public data sources to help with our models and analytics. An interesting find is the Small Business Pulse Survey from the US Census Bureau. The survey will be released weekly and ,unlike some other sources, does provide details at an industry level (2 digit NAICSS).
The first survey reporting period is April 26 through May 2 with weekly updates planned through June.
Here’s a sample visual from the site looking at the question: “In your opinion, how much time do you think will pass before this business returns to its normal level of operations relative to one year ago?” for the construction industry.
The data is also available as a CSV download and the visualizations support state by state drill downs.
A visualization showing total number of cases to date of COVID19 by county.